At least a section of markets is behaving as if July’s job gains is sustainable, and the US economy is not on the verge of falling apart. The Russell 2000 has scored some technical wins, but the S&P 500 and … Continued
On a 12-month basis, the US budget deficit may have peaked, but at the same time the Fed is also getting ready to taper. In the past, the 10-year peaked mid-way through QE. From this perspective, the March high of … Continued
Gold has rallied for four straight weeks – up more than 14 percent from early March. Last week, the metal just about tested crucial resistance at $1,920s. Conditions – daily in particular – are overbought, and a pause is the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 4, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 7.2k, up 63k. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated on Tuesday that “it may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 23, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 2.8k, down 100.6k. Bond vigilantes and central banks look ready for a duel. The former fired the opening salvo, with long rates rising meaningfully … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 103.4k, up 23.9k. The 10-year treasury yield had a mini breakout this week at 1.2 percent. This was preceded by a breakout six weeks … Continued
The 10-year continues to perk up, eyeing 1.4 percent. The strength is seen even though the Fed continues to aggressively buy these securities, although foreigners have been cutting exposure. In a leveraged economy, higher rates will translate to higher interest … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 9, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 79.5k, up 20.9k. Minutes for the January 26-27 FOMC meeting – the first of eight scheduled meetings this year – will be out Wednesday. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 2, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 58.7k, up 21.8k. So far so good from bond bears’ perspective (from price point of view). After having failed just under one percent for … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 29, 2020 (data was made public this Monday instead of last Friday due to New Year’s holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 25.2k, down 24.9k. FOMC minutes for the December 15-16 … Continued