Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 28, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 213.3k, down 126k. FOMC minutes for the December 14-15 meeting come out on Wednesday. This was a meeting in which markets essentially forced the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 23, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 323.4k, up 29.3k. As of last Tuesday, non-commercials added more to their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures. They are now most … Continued
With two sessions to go, November is on the verge of flashing a yellow flag on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. These indices of late have diverged with deteriorating consumer sentiment. In a seasonally favorable period, some key … Continued
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 on Monday broke out of ascending triangle but only to reverse hard lower. That said, bulls have not quite given up yet. They continue to show up at/near shorter-term moving averages. Before this … Continued
As S&P 500 earnings staged massive recovery from post-pandemic lows, buybacks are back in fashion. Thus far in 4Q, the index is already up north of nine percent, pricing in a lot of seasonality optimism. As things stand, the index … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 294.1k, up 26.8k. Minutes for the FOMC meeting on November 2-3 will be out next Wednesday. At the conclusion of the meeting, the Fed … Continued
The S&P 500 keeps rallying to new highs, breaking down historical relationships with several metrics. It is possible the Fed’s expanding balance sheet is causing all this divergence. If it is, then the central bank will stop expanding its asset … Continued
The 10-year continues to perk up, eyeing 1.4 percent. The strength is seen even though the Fed continues to aggressively buy these securities, although foreigners have been cutting exposure. In a leveraged economy, higher rates will translate to higher interest … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 2, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 58.7k, up 21.8k. So far so good from bond bears’ perspective (from price point of view). After having failed just under one percent for … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 22, 2020 (data was made public this Monday instead of last Friday due to Christmas holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 50.2k, up 22.8k. Once again last week, bond bears (on … Continued