CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 22, 2020 (data was made public this Monday instead of last Friday due to Christmas holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 50.2k, up 22.8k. Once again last week, bond bears (on … Continued

FINRA Margin Debt Inching Closer To May ’18 High, Has Tight Correlation With Small-Caps, Which Are Going Parabolic

posted in: Credit, Equities | 0

As major US equity indices post record highs, margin debt is inching ever closer to its high from May 2018. In all probability, November will have made a new high in margin debt. Amidst all this risk-on behavior, it is … Continued

FINRA Margin Debt Up $105.4bn From March Low – Absolute Low Probably Not In Yet

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

Between March and June, FINRA margin debt increased $105.4 billion, providing a nice tailwind for stocks.  As a percent of disposable personal income, margin debt dropped to 2.8 percent in April, down from 4.3 percent in January 2018.  Historically, peak-to-trough … Continued

Bulls, Bears Likely Lock Horns Around 2600 On S&P 500 Next

It is probably not coincidental that US stocks and Treasury yields peaked together early October.  The 10-year rate is right near support and has room to rally near term.  This should bode well for equity bulls who last week put … Continued

Z.1 — 2Q17 Household Assets At New High, Several Other Metrics At Nosebleed Territory

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

The financial accounts of the U.S. for 2Q17 was published last Thursday.  Better known as the Z.1 report, the massive quarterly publication contains tons of useful data – thus highly recommended. The seven charts below try to highlight where things … Continued

Recent Spurt In Rates Bound To Hurt Housing, If Sustained — Likely Not Sustainable

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

U.S. sales of homes – both new and existing – are at/near cycle highs.  This amidst personal incomes that are struggling to rise with surging home prices.  Against this background comes the recent backup in mortgage rates, particularly post-Trump victory.  … Continued