The treasury yield curve, crude and copper are seriously worried about prospects for the economy. Not the sell-side, which continues to expect a banner year – both 2023 and 2024 – for S&P 500 operating earnings. Odds heavily favor their … Continued
In the wake of the Fed’s hawkish tilt last week, tech came under pressure, though nothing major yet. This is taking place even as some internals are showing cracks. The Nasdaq 100 tumbled 3.3 percent last week. This was a … Continued
Equity bulls used the Yellen dip last Tuesday as an opportunity to add to risk, not reduce. The Fed is making sure liquidity remains plentiful, and the short end of the yield curve is cooperative. In this environment, VIX on … Continued
The 10-year continues to perk up, eyeing 1.4 percent. The strength is seen even though the Fed continues to aggressively buy these securities, although foreigners have been cutting exposure. In a leveraged economy, higher rates will translate to higher interest … Continued
The 10-year T-yield dropped from 3.24 percent a month ago to last Thursday’s intraday low of 2.83 percent. The daily chart is grossly oversold. A rally looks imminent near term, meaning TLT is headed lower. US average hourly earnings for … Continued
The long end of the Treasury yield curve is doing it again. It refuses to go along with the Fed’s tightening campaign, particularly so Wednesday as policymakers were a slightly more hawkish than previously. Wednesday, the Fed raised the fed … Continued
The U.S. sovereign bond market is in upheaval. So to speak. Ten-year Treasury yields have broken out. Chart 1 is a monthly chart. If in the next couple of sessions, these yields stay north of at least 2.5 percent – … Continued
Ten-year Treasury yields rallied last week to right underneath the top end of a three-decade-old channel. A breakout has to wait for now. The 13-basis-point jump last week was big, and probably took many by surprise. At one point, yields … Continued
U.S. Treasury yields have come under upward pressure for nearly a month and a half, although the increase has not been uniform across the curve. The yield curve (spread between the two- and 10-year) last Friday was only 79 basis … Continued
Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture. This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued