Ten-Year Yields Under Upward Pressure, But Not Enough For Major Breakout

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

Ten-year Treasury yields rallied last week to right underneath the top end of a three-decade-old channel.  A breakout has to wait for now. The 13-basis-point jump last week was big, and probably took many by surprise.  At one point, yields … Continued

Ten-Year T-Yields Back Up, But Still Under Crucial 2.62%

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

U.S. Treasury yields have come under upward pressure for nearly a month and a half, although the increase has not been uniform across the curve. The yield curve (spread between the two- and 10-year) last Friday was only 79 basis … Continued

Stocks Rallied, Bonds Fell In Post-Election Optimism – Latter Now Disagrees

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

After President Donald Trump won the election last November, U.S. bonds and stocks had a massive positive reaction.  The former sold off, the latter rallied. On November 8 (election day), TLT, the iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, closed at … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 214.6k, up 255.9k. Ten-year Treasury yields did indeed test support-turned-resistance at 2.31 percent this week.  In fact, they rose all the way to 2.35 … Continued

TLT Repelled At Resistance – Likely Headed Lower Near Term

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Last week, bond bulls wasted a big opportunity.  Sort of.  Intraday Friday, 10-year Treasury yields broke down, but only to recover big by close. On December 15 last year, yields hit 2.62 percent before retreating.  This resistance goes back to … Continued

Interesting Dynamics Between Non-Commercials’ Eurodollar And 10-Year-Note Futures

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

After having left the fed funds rate near zero for seven long years, the Fed seemingly has shifted to a tightening bias.  In agreement, non-commercials in eurodollar futures are aggressively betting that rates are headed higher.  Are they right? Since … Continued

Flatter Yield Curve Makes Fed’s Job Harder – Rally In Financials In Limbo

Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture.  This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued

1 2 3 4 7