Stocks Rallied, Bonds Fell In Post-Election Optimism – Latter Now Disagrees

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

After President Donald Trump won the election last November, U.S. bonds and stocks had a massive positive reaction.  The former sold off, the latter rallied. On November 8 (election day), TLT, the iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, closed at … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 214.6k, up 255.9k. Ten-year Treasury yields did indeed test support-turned-resistance at 2.31 percent this week.  In fact, they rose all the way to 2.35 … Continued

TLT Repelled At Resistance – Likely Headed Lower Near Term

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Last week, bond bulls wasted a big opportunity.  Sort of.  Intraday Friday, 10-year Treasury yields broke down, but only to recover big by close. On December 15 last year, yields hit 2.62 percent before retreating.  This resistance goes back to … Continued

Interesting Dynamics Between Non-Commercials’ Eurodollar And 10-Year-Note Futures

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

After having left the fed funds rate near zero for seven long years, the Fed seemingly has shifted to a tightening bias.  In agreement, non-commercials in eurodollar futures are aggressively betting that rates are headed higher.  Are they right? Since … Continued

Flatter Yield Curve Makes Fed’s Job Harder – Rally In Financials In Limbo

Ten-year Treasury yields are not going along with the Fed’s tightening posture.  This could be because of a technical reason or yields could be sending an ominous message. Yields reached a historic low 1.34 percent last July, and have been … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 3, 2017. 10-year note: Tuesday brought December’s ISM manufacturing index, which rose 1.5 points month-over-month to a two-year high 54.7; orders jumped 6.8 points m/m to a 25-month high.  Ten-year yields … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2016. 10-year note: Ten-year Treasury yields peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981, then dropping to 1.39 percent by July 2012.  In July this year, those lows were slightly undercut; the … Continued

Divergent Price Signal – Prudent To Have One Foot Out The Door

Price is the final arbiter … is an often-quoted axiom in finance.  Has truth in it.  For a trend to establish itself, price has to cooperate.  As long as this continues, there is no use fighting it.  Of course, all … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 5, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One can make a cogent argument that U.S. sovereign bonds are in a blow-off phase.  Since late May through the Friday high, TLT, … Continued

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