The 10-year yield retreated last month from a potentially crucial spot. The supply-demand dynamics are in favor of bond bears, but this is also a well-known fact, hence may already be in the price. They at the same time are … Continued
Interest rates on both the short and long end have gone up meaningfully. The federal government sits on nearly $33 trillion in debt, and the budget deficit is on the rise even though the economy is growing. This only means … Continued
The Fed is selling its treasury holdings, foreigners are buying. Non-commercials are shorting 10-year note futures, the US budget deficit is narrowing. Amidst these supply-demand dynamics, the 10-year T-yield is at risk of forming a potentially bearish technical pattern. The … Continued
After repeated tries for months now, the 10-year Treasury yield finally broke through one percent on Wednesday. After Democrats won the two runoff Senate races in Georgia, markets are betting on more fiscal stimulus in quarters to come. Bond bears … Continued
The longest bull market in U.S. stock market history abruptly came to an end last month. Between March 9, 2009 and February 19, 2020 – that is, 131 months – the S&P 500 large cap index rallied 401 percent, second … Continued
No one rang the bell when the longest bull in US stock market history came to an end last month. The drop was swift and decisive. Several oversold metrics are itching to get unwound. But markets are in panic mode. … Continued
US reliance on debt is growing. Having already just about used up the conventional monetary tool and a massive balance sheet, the Fed is looking for new tools – a la Japan. Stocks’ reaction function to Japanification is key. At … Continued
Major US equity indices posted fresh new highs Monday. For a while now, foreigners have lent a helping hand, although they at the same time have been aggressively selling US Treasury securities. Equity bulls would prefer foreigners to maintain the … Continued