Fed’s Tightening Campaign Taking Place Amidst Stretched Valuation Metrics In US Equities

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

Most valuation metrics in US equities are stretched. This at a time when the Fed is tightening. Depending on how inflation behaves in the months and quarters ahead and how monetary policy evolves, unwinding of overbought conditions can cause pain. … Continued

Fed Put At Work – After Slight Hiccup Last Week, Equity Indices Back At/Near Highs

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

Last week, the FOMC slightly tilted hawkish. Repercussions were felt across assets. Then early this week, dovish members were out in full force, pacifying investors that monetary morphine is here to stay; major equity indices are back at/near their highs. … Continued

Longest Bull Market In U.S. Stocks Bid Adieu But Not Before Flashing Warning Signs

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

The longest bull market in U.S. stock market history abruptly came to an end last month.  Between March 9, 2009 and February 19, 2020 – that is, 131 months – the S&P 500 large cap index rallied 401 percent, second … Continued

Amidst Elevated Valuation Metrics, Stocks Remain Resilient

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

It is not easy getting a handle on valuation dynamics.  During good times, multiples rise to exorbitant levels, and the opposite happens when times are bad.  The usual cycle of things. Come to think of it.  At any time, value … Continued

Several Valuation Metrics On Way To Unwinding From Extended Levels?

posted in: Equities | 0

Last year, with the bull market in its seventh year, a June 19th post sought to find out where several valuation metrics stood.  The conclusion was that they were in uncharted territory.  With three more quarters of data since, a … Continued

Bulls Have More To Worry Long-Term Than If August Lows Hold

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With all the hand-wringing over whether or not the August lows will hold, this is the least of bulls’ worries.  Bigger challenges probably lie ahead. Of the big four – the S&P 500 index, the Dow Industrials, the Nasdaq composite, … Continued

Bulls And Bears Duel In Uncharted Territory

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

We are in uncharted territory!  On so many levels.  As you will see in the charts below, many valuation metrics are stretched. The nation’s debt load just rose to a new high.  At 1Q15, the total credit market debt outstanding … Continued

Party hard, but dance near exit

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Sideways move in stocks – just a pause or sign of fatigue after six-year run? Several different measures point to gradual buildup in complacency over the years Human nature not to want to leave party early, which is fine unless … Continued

No rate hike in foreseeable future

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy | 0

Fed gets rid of “patient”, but hints it will be patient in hiking rates Surging dollar impacts exports; Fed takes 2015 GDP forecast down a notch With economic data increasingly coming in weak, rate-hike odds this year next to nil  … Continued