Stocks Caught Between Seasonal Tailwind And Multiples Headwind

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

This could very well be setting up like a tug of war between favorable seasonals and elevated multiples, with possible retest of make-or-break 2120 on the S&P 500 large cap index. Going back to 2009 when the bull market erupted, … Continued

Conditions In Place For Pendulum To Swing Other Way — Can Bulls Deliver?

posted in: Equities | 0

Of late, equity bulls have pulled in their horns.  Just a tad.  Will they be rewarded for their steadfast bullishness in the near-term? Investors Intelligence’s survey of bulls this week registered at 44.8 percent.  This was the sixth sub-50 reading … Continued

Bulls And Bears Duel In Uncharted Territory

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

We are in uncharted territory!  On so many levels.  As you will see in the charts below, many valuation metrics are stretched. The nation’s debt load just rose to a new high.  At 1Q15, the total credit market debt outstanding … Continued

Bulls’ resolve being tested

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Major U.S. indices reversed from early strength yesterday.  As a matter of fact, it took less than an hour – half an hour in most cases – before things began to turn south.  From the S&P 500 large cap index … Continued

Limp signal out of vol of vol, but VIX:VXV probably sides with bulls N/T

posted in: Derivatives, Equities | 0

Both bulls and bears holding on to turf; S&P 500 remains range-bound VIX:VXV pokes head out of oversold zone but unable to make further progress Volatility of volatility jumped to highest four months ago; in no-man’s land currently Bulls and … Continued

Can U.S. dollar become victim of its own success?

Dollar has benefited from growth/interest rate differential among countries Recent spurt of weak U.S. data has pushed back rate-hike expectations to late 15 Dollar index retreats after approaching crucial Fib retracement; other levels to watch In 2014, the U.S. economy … Continued

Short interest fuel aplenty, can bulls exploit?

posted in: Equities | 0

Bulls have consistently climbed wall of worry, that is, elevated short interest Past 3 months, Naz/NYSE short interest sideways, shorts giving up? Hedgopia Risk Reward Index pokes head out of reward zone Post-FOMC, Wednesday sure felt like a session in … Continued

Contrarian in, complacent out

posted in: Equities | 0

March starts off by notching new highs for most U.S. indices Giddy investor sentiment – from pros to newsletters to individuals If past is guide, it pays to pull in horns when crowd becomes worry-free Uh-oh! The Nasdaq composite on … Continued