Macro Deceleration Getting Confirmed By How 10-Year T-Yield Behaves

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

If early this year the 10-year T-yield vouched for the strength of the US economy as it broke out of multi-year/decade resistance, what is it trying to tell us now that it seems to have hit the wall and is … Continued

Stocks Attempting To Form Base – This Week’s Action Could Provide Further Clues

There are signs of macro deceleration.  Equities may be starting to price this in, but are not panicking.  If the S&P 500 rallies near term, how investors behave around 2800 can signal what kind of deceleration lies ahead. On October … Continued

Amidst Elevated Optimism, Caution Hat Out

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Peak optimism? We are increasingly beginning to hear commentators/observers use that phrase in media interviews, articles as well as on social media.  Among other things, Charts 1 and 2 are probably to blame. In the latest week, Investors Intelligence bulls … Continued

Stocks Caught Between Seasonal Tailwind And Multiples Headwind

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

This could very well be setting up like a tug of war between favorable seasonals and elevated multiples, with possible retest of make-or-break 2120 on the S&P 500 large cap index. Going back to 2009 when the bull market erupted, … Continued

Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 9, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, the IMF urged the Fed to delay a rate hike until 2016.  This week, the World Bank said the same thing. … Continued