The usual middle-of-the-road approach. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony to the Senate yesterday, that is. (She appears before the House later today.) There were no hints as to if she was ready to vote for a rate … Continued
Three prominent FOMC members spoke in the past week, and all three adopted a hawkish tone. Might they be trying to ready the markets for a rate hike in the September 20-21 meeting? With the U.S. presidential election scheduled for … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 19, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If you repeat something often enough, it becomes the truth. So the saying goes. Why bring this up? There is a sudden uptick … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 21, 2016. Change is week-over-week. (Please note holdings are prior to non-commercials’ potential Friday reaction post-Brexit win.) 10-year note: There goes any sliver of hope for a rate hike in … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 14, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: In Godfather III, Michael Corleone famously says: “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” Given the circumstances, this … Continued
The correlation between financials and the two-year Treasury yield is tight. The latter tends to be sensitive to Fed action. In recent months in particular, the two-year has been on a roller-coaster ride trying to keep up with FOMC members’ … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 31, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On June 14-15, the FOMC meets. This is the year’s fourth meeting, and there will be four more left after this (July 26-27, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 24, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Was that a yay or nay from Janet Yellen, Fed chair? In an interview at Harvard University on Friday, she said that an … Continued
Later today at 1:15 PM, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, speaks at Harvard University. Markets will be on pins and needles waiting to hear what she will say. She is appearing in public in the wake of several hawkish comments/speeches from … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The FOMC minutes for the March 15-16 meeting were released this week, and there was nothing substantially new. That said, maybe because FOMC … Continued