S&P 500 Declines 5.9% From July High Before Bids Show Up Last Fri At 4320s Breakout Retest – Relief Rally Ahead

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

From its July 27 high through last Friday’s low, the S&P 500 quickly shed 5.9 percent. A relief rally looks imminent as equity bulls are not in a mood to let go breakout retest at 4320s. Not now anyway. Mid-to … Continued

Amidst Leading Large-Caps And Lagging Small-Caps, Former At Top Of 8-Month Channel

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The dichotomy between large- and small-caps continues – the former at 14-month high and the latter stuck in an 18-month range. That said, the S&P 500 has reached a potentially crucial resistance. Buybacks have been providing a nice tailwind. Margin … Continued

Bears Put Foot Down Near Crucial Resistance On S&P 500 And Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100 Clinging On To Support

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Bears are putting foot down. On both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, bulls last week were unable to break through multi-year resistance, even as the Nasdaq 100 finished right on rising-channel support from March. All this followed massive gains … Continued

Despite 20% Rally In S&P 500 In Past 11 Weeks, Investor Sentiment Restrained

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Since late December, US stocks have rallied massively.  Yet, investor sentiment has not caught up.  Reason for bulls to worry or rejoice?  The answer may lie in who decisively wins the bull-bear tug of war around 2800 on S&P 500. … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 20, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 214.5k, down 82.5k. Three percent on the 10-year Treasury note is a closely watched level by many.  If it is surpassed, stops likely get … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 296.9k, down 30.6k. If 10-year Treasury yields (2.88 percent) reach three percent – or even where they are currently – would/could that be used … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 327.5k, up 111.9k. The bond market is worried. Yes, beginning last October the Fed has been curtailing its bloated $4.5-trillion balance sheet.  Yes, foreigners’ … Continued

Equity Bulls Put Foot Down Near Feb ’16 Trend Line

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. equity bulls stepped up near important support Tuesday.  Those lows have now taken on significance.  Should there be no violation, the path of least resistance is up – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. In the early months of 2016, stocks … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 215.6k, up 97.7k. Last week, the futures-market odds of a 25-basis-point hike in the March (20-21) meeting in the fed funds rate stood at … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 23, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 117.9k, up 28.6k. Tuesday, a two-day FOMC meeting begins.  This is the year’s first, and will be Janet Yellen’s, the outgoing chair, last.  (The … Continued