VIX took a dive on Wednesday after getting denied at 27.50s for several sessions. Concurrently, Investors Intelligence bulls plunged 15.4 percentage points over two weeks to sub-30 percent, and the Hedgopia Risk Reward Index is rising from oversold territory. Equity … Continued
The 10-year treasury yield ended with a weekly shooting star last week, briefly rising above two percent. Only about two and a half months ago, rates were 1.34 percent. The 10-year may be ready to unwind at least some of … Continued
Pfizer’s positive vaccine news on Monday last week elicited favorable investor response. Moderna’s positive news this Monday generated a lukewarm response. Fatigue is setting in. Major US equity indices are in overbought territory, particularly daily, with several sentiment readings already … Continued
Major US equity indices took it on the chin last week. Medium- to long-term, there is more to go on the downside – if nothing else just to unwind overbought conditions. Near-term, in the right circumstances for bulls, a relief … Continued
Stocks have rallied massively since March lows, but bulls are essentially hiding in large-caps, and in just a few names within large-caps. If past is prelude, such over-reliance is not lasting. With 47 companies reporting as of last Thursday, 1Q20 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 274k, down 32.2k. There it goes! The 10-year Treasury yield (1.13 percent) pierced through the lows from July 2012 and July 2016 – 1.39 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 163.6k, down 32.7k. Futures traders this week reacted to September’s ISM reports by jacking up the probability of a 25-basis-point cut later this month … Continued
VIX just rallied to a seven-month high. At the same time, it struggled to hang on to the gains in the past couple of sessions. The recent surge has pushed it into overbought territory, which could very well be in … Continued
Since the intraday low on Boxing Day, SPY is up nearly 11 percent. Too far, too fast? Possibly, as the ETF is just a hair breadth away from support-turned-resistance at 260, which it lost mid-December. The Fed has a dual … Continued
From early October, the S&P 500 is down 18 percent. Important support lies at 2400, or just underneath. Several indicators are at/near panic levels. Risk-reward odds favor unwinding of these conditions sooner than later. There is blood on the Street. … Continued