CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 11, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 639k, up 18k. The 10-year treasury yield (3.52 percent) dropped from 4.33 percent last October to the low six sessions ago of 3.25 percent. … Continued

S&P 500 Rallies To New High Last Thu; Tech’s Participation Should Help Build On Momentum

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 posted a new record last Thursday; otherwise a laggard this year and March in particular, the Nasdaq 100 too reclaimed its 50-day. Continued strength in tech should reverberate through the rest of the market, particularly market cap-weighted … Continued

3-Week Selloff Pushes Major Equity Indices To Crucial Support – Opportunity For Bulls To Step Up And Defend

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major US equity indices took it on the chin last week. Medium- to long-term, there is more to go on the downside – if nothing else just to unwind overbought conditions. Near-term, in the right circumstances for bulls, a relief … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 27, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 16.2k, down 6.8k. The FOMC meets next week. After this, only one meeting remains this year, slated for December 15-16. It will be interesting … Continued

Margin Debt Grows In Sep – A Down Month – Russell 2000 Breaks Out In Oct; Bulls Will Love If Russell 2000:S&P 500 Breaks Out Next

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

September was a down month, but it turns out the selloff was used as an opportunity to buy. Use of leverage grew last month. This was then followed this month by improved price action in small-caps, which investors tend to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 20, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 23k, down 52.3k. Treasury yields are rallying. The 10-year (0.84 percent) Friday unsuccessfully tested its 200-day moving average, even as the 30-year (1.65 percent) … Continued

With Massive Gains Past 3 Months, Bulls Stay Put; Reversal Risks Rising Looking At VIX Futures

Kudos to equity bulls for pulling off an impressive reversal off of late-December lows.  Major indices have now rallied for over three months, pushing them into extended territory.  Looking at VIX futures, a lot of the good news is in … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 224.2k, up 57.7k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.5 percent) rallied nine basis points this week.  Support around the intraday low of 2.36 percent eight … Continued

Ahead Of Low-Bar Earnings Season, Russell 2000 Right Under Crucial Resistance

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

On the eve of 1Q19 earnings season, the Russell 2000 sits right underneath short-term trend-line resistance.  After this lies crucial 14-month horizontal ceiling.  How non-commercials position themselves this week could leave clues as to how the index might fare in … Continued