CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2016. 10-year note: Like that, 10-year Treasury yields rallied north of 100 basis points in four and a half months – from the all-time low 1.34 percent on July 6 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 15, 2016. 10-year note: Post-Trump victory, the bond market has swiftly priced in higher inflation.  The U.S. economy is in its eighth year of expansion, although growth remains subdued. On a … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 1, 2016. 10-year note: The 10-year yield (cash) has been trapped in a descending channel for the past three decades, having peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981. From the July … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 18, 2016. 10-year note: Both China and Japan reduced their holdings of Treasury notes and bonds in August – the former by a whopping $33.7 billion and the latter by … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 11, 2016. 10-year note: In late September, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, said the bank might be able to help the U.S. economy in a downturn if it could buy stocks … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 13, 2016.   10-year note: More and more, we are beginning to hear from commentators – both professional and in media – that major central banks are increasingly hesitant about … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 6, 2016.   10-year note: Is the ECB reaching the end of the stimulus rope?  This is not a consensus thinking, but the bank may very well be trying to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 30, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Prior to this week, after hawkish comments from several FOMC members, it looked like the August jobs report was the sole make-or-break data … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 23, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: In the Greenspan era, traders did not have to deal with the kind of mixed messages they do today.  Back then, the message … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 16, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One more prominent central banker this week seemed to throw his hands up in the air. John Williams, San Francisco Fed president, in … Continued