Bulls Hiding In Large-Caps And In Just A Few Names Within Large-Caps – Conviction Lacking

Stocks have rallied massively since March lows, but bulls are essentially hiding in large-caps, and in just a few names within large-caps.  If past is prelude, such over-reliance is not lasting. With 47 companies reporting as of last Thursday, 1Q20 … Continued

Macro Deceleration Getting Confirmed By How 10-Year T-Yield Behaves

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

If early this year the 10-year T-yield vouched for the strength of the US economy as it broke out of multi-year/decade resistance, what is it trying to tell us now that it seems to have hit the wall and is … Continued

US Jobs Picture Strong, Hence Its Significance In Signaling Inflection Point

posted in: Economy | 0

US economic data of late have been coming in strong.  Real GDP printed 4.1 percent growth in 2Q18.  This was the strongest growth rate in 15 quarters.  As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model expects 4.4 percent growth … Continued

Risk/Reward Favors S&P 500 Shorts Near- To Medium-Term

The chart below (Chart 1) caused a lot of stir last Friday – across asset classes, primarily in the U.S., and elsewhere. The U.S. economy only added 38,000 non-farm jobs in May, much weaker than expected and the lowest monthly … Continued

Hawks Versus Doves – Odds Of Former Losing Ground In Rate Debate

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The Fed’s dual mandate currently is a source of ammo for both hawks and doves within the FOMC.  Would it always remain this way? Core PCE inflation has been ticking up a bit of late, but still below the Fed’s … Continued

Markit expects Dec U.S. private payroll growth of sub-200k; oil to blame?

posted in: Economy | 0

Markit forecast of sub-200k private payroll growth this month a surprise U.S. unemployment claims, near historical lows, need catalyst to begin to move up Oil-heavy states are yet to see jobs impact of drop in crude, but only a matter … Continued