Ahead Of Fri’s Mar Payrolls, Feb Openings Suggest Continued Softening In Job Creation

posted in: Economy | 0

On Friday, March’s employment numbers will be reported. Job growth has been decelerating for months now. Amidst this comes February’s JOLTS report, which points to more softening in the jobs picture in the months ahead. In February, the US economy … Continued

Revision Trend In ’23 Earnings Estimates Down, Yet To Reflect Full Extent Of End-Demand Softness That Lies Ahead

posted in: Uncategorized | 0

Next year’s earnings estimates for US companies peaked in April for large-caps and in June for small-caps. Given Powell’s resolve to significantly reduce the current four-decade-high inflation – no matter what the cost to jobs and the economy – the … Continued

Fed Succeeds In Driving Investors To Take On Risk And Go Up Risk Curve, But End Game Is Bound To Be Painful Regardless

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Last March, the Fed essentially urged investors to take on risk and go up the risk curve. They have obliged. Leverage is high in the system. This works as long as the prevailing upward momentum is in place. When a … Continued

After Massive Rally Post-March Lows, Major Equity Indices Falling Under Their Own Weight

The recent selloff in equities has come at a time of elevated Fed balance sheet, stabilizing earnings estimates and improving macro data. Either stocks believe these positives are not lasting or they are falling under their own weight, as they … Continued

Fed Likely To Again Use Balance Sheet As Tool, Stocks May React Differently

The Fed meets this week.  It already shifted its bias from hawkish to dovish, helping stocks.  With the economy softening, in due course the Fed may once again deploy balance sheet as a tool, which will initially help stocks, but … Continued

US Jobs Picture Strong, Hence Its Significance In Signaling Inflection Point

posted in: Economy | 0

US economic data of late have been coming in strong.  Real GDP printed 4.1 percent growth in 2Q18.  This was the strongest growth rate in 15 quarters.  As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model expects 4.4 percent growth … Continued

Small-Cap Momentum Continues – Bulls Focused On Current Profit Trend, Not Revision

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With bulls latching on to every positive fundamental data, small-caps continue to build on breakout from three weeks ago. From the perspective of how they are acting and how they have outperformed their large-cap peers, small-caps are winning big. After … Continued