Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 2, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 95.6k, up 98.4k. Chair Jerome Powell apparently failed to calm bond-market nerves on Thursday – or at least that is how markets’ reaction would … Continued
Massive growth in money supply could potentially lead to inflationary pressures. But the velocity of money is near record lows. As things stand, inflation expectations are perking up near term but remain suppressed further out. Chart 1 is forcing investors … Continued
Last Thursday’s sizable drop in major US equity indices was sudden. Several metrics were so deep into overbought territory the decline probably did not come as a surprise to many. The magnitude of it was. Indices have rallied in the … Continued
The post-Great Recession recovery has been uneven. Jobs have been one of the bright spots. In the dying months of last year, job openings – both non-farm and small-business – weakened. It is too early to declare a trend has … Continued
Stocks have rallied big on hopes of even easier monetary policy. In the very near term, bulls carry the momentum ball. Medium- to long-term, a daunting task likely awaits them. The Fed’s toolkit is inadequate. Plus, its stimulative measures may … Continued
US stocks continued to take it on the chin last week. Amidst this rout that began early October, small-caps last week performed relatively better. Bulls hope this is a signal, not a noise, at least near term. US M2 money … Continued
Arguably, US stocks are giving off some signs of fatigue. The S&P 500 large cap index (2840.35) is still below its late-January high of 2872.87. The Nasdaq 100 index (7395.49) in the week before was rejected at six-month-old channel resistance; … Continued
“…the details of the tax legislation suggested that its effects on consumer and business spending – while still uncertain – might be a bit greater in the near term than they had previously thought. Although several saw increased upside risks … Continued
July turned out to be an important month for the S&P 500 large cap index. More than a year after it peaked in May last year, the index reached a new high, rising 3.6 percent for the month. The July … Continued
If a chart gets retweeted 86 times, it is safe to say that the topic in question has touched a nerve in Twitter finance. The chart above had that distinction. The topic it highlighted thus deserves a post. So here … Continued