Russell 2000 Perking Up – Lasting Or Not Likely Gets Decided By Non-Commercials

Small-caps have sprung back to life in recent sessions. Since peaking at 1514.94 on October 5 through the intraday low of 1454.17 last Wednesday, the Russell 2000 small cap index (1503.40) shed four percent.  It was a slow drip-drip move … Continued

Divergence Galore – Risk-Off Sentiment Reflected In Small-Caps, High-Yield

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

There is divergence in the markets.  Tons of it. Large-caps are going one way and small-caps the other.  Ditto with transports and high-yield. The Russell 2000 small cap index peaked on 1514.94 on October 5, before trending lower in a … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 10, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 192.6k, down 39.6k. Market participants constantly rerate expectations.  They have to.  The related variables are dynamic and constantly changing themselves. The nimble ones are … Continued

R2K Faces 161.8% Fib-Extension Resistance – Repercussions For Non-Commercials Plus IWM/IJR Longs

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Helped along by massive short squeeze and healthy flows into ETFs, small-caps have broken out to 161.8-percent Fibonacci-extension resistance. Most recently, the Russell 2000 small cap index bottomed on August 18, and has gone on to rally 12-plus-percent since.  In … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 3, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 232.2k, down 24.5k. December looks like a lock.  The odds in the futures market of a 25-basis-point hike in the 12-13th meeting that month … Continued

R2K Breaks Out – Breakout Retest Matter Of Time, And Will Test Rally’s Sustainability

There is a new-found spring in U.S. small-caps’ step.  What changed all of a sudden?  More importantly, are there ingredients in place for the rally to sustain itself? The Russell 2000 small cap index just broke out.  It has been … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 19, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 270.1k, up 18.4k. Americans’ love for leverage needs no elaboration.  The debt culture began in earnest in the early ’80s.  Leverage remains high – … Continued

Another Relief Rally Likely — Equally Likely Shorts Show Up At Resistance

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

From the all-time high of 2490.87 on August 8 through last Friday’s intraday low of 2420.69, the S&P 500 large cap index shed 2.8 percent.  Not much in a big scheme of things.  It is still up 8.3 percent this … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 15, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 200.6k, down 29.2k. The annual Jackson Hole economic policy symposium – slated for August 24-26 this year – is known for its news-making potential. … Continued

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