Spot VIX Sub-13 For 3 Straight Sessions, Volatility Curve In Steep Contango

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The last time spot VIX closed under 13 for three consecutive sessions was in early August last year.  In fact, VIX back then stayed sub-13 for four straight sessions ended August 3rd, and registered three more sub-13 readings by August … Continued

US Dollar Index’s Sharp Two-Day Rally Driven By Fear, Not Fundamentals

From last week’s Thursday close through this Monday, the US dollar index jumped 3.4 percent.  This was the sharpest two-session increase since it rallied 3.6 percent on September 29, 1992.  That is how far back one has to go in … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 14, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: In Godfather III, Michael Corleone famously says: “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” Given the circumstances, this … Continued

Equity Bulls Better Off Distinguishing Between Near- And Medium-Term

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U.S. equities had a powerful session on Tuesday, followed by another good session on Wednesday.  Volume could have been a little better on major U.S. indices but price spoke loud and clear. The Nasdaq 100 surged 2.1 percent on Tuesday, … Continued

S&P 500 Index: 200-DMA Path Of Least Resistance?

A week ago last Friday, U.S. stocks opened lower reacting to less-than-expected rise in April’s non-farm payroll.  As the session progressed, bids showed up, as traders began to price in lesser odds of a rate hike in June. Turns out … Continued

Rally Odds Growing, But Upside Potential Probably Limited

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U.S. stocks have gone 12 straight sessions without even a sliver of a bounce.  About time for a reprieve? Between the December 29th intra-day high and January 15th low, the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials each lost 10.8 percent, the … Continued

For 2nd Time Past 13 Sessions, Put-To-Call Ratio Over One; Stocks Likely Get Help This Time

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Last Friday, the CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio registered a reading of north of one.  This does not occur very often. With this, the 21-day moving average rose to 0.766, not that far away from the September 18th (2015) high of … Continued