Having Rallied Huge For 3 Months, Stocks Likely To Get Reality Check Ahead

Stocks rallied for three months in defiance of deteriorating macro data.  By essentially putting an end to the tightening cycle, the Fed is acknowledging this.  Stocks could be the next. What just happened? Many are probably asking that question after … Continued

Bulls, Bears Likely Lock Horns Around 2600 On S&P 500 Next

It is probably not coincidental that US stocks and Treasury yields peaked together early October.  The 10-year rate is right near support and has room to rally near term.  This should bode well for equity bulls who last week put … Continued

Odds Growing Sharp Reflex Rally In S&P 500 Sooner Than Later

From early October, the S&P 500 is down 18 percent.  Important support lies at 2400, or just underneath.  Several indicators are at/near panic levels.  Risk-reward odds favor unwinding of these conditions sooner than later. There is blood on the Street.  … Continued

Bears Have Momo, But Need Extra To Break 2600 on S&P 500 In Next Several Sessions

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 hurriedly jumped 6.4 percent in seven sessions.  Impatient bulls essentially handed out shorts an opportunity to once again show up at 2800.  The risk is the downside, but it is likely 2800-2600 remains intact in the next … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 539.2k, up 36.3k. In January, the 10-year Treasury rate broke out of 2.62 percent.  Then in September, it took out 2.95 percent, followed by … Continued

Several Momentum Indicators Oversold, Stocks’ Path Of Least Resistance Up

The ongoing selloff in equities has been quick and painful – similar to what transpired in February this year.  Back then, once stocks bottomed, they proceeded to rally strongly.  Will the current selloff evolve the same way?  Too early to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 23, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 544k, down 71.9k. The 10-year Treasury rate (3.08 percent) shed 12 basis points this week – now down 17 basis points from the intraday … Continued

After Tumultuous 2 Weeks, Equities Oversold – Good Idea To Cover Short

What a week!  Stocks really took it on the chin last week, but by Friday there was some semblance of stability.  Several indicators are in deep oversold territory.  At least a reflex rally is due. During the carnage over the … Continued