Breakouts galore – some potentially significant, some feeble. But it is too soon to lend significant weight to last week’s action given potentially bearish candles of November and December. The Russell 2000 cleanly broke out of 2540s last week. After … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 6, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 915.6k, down 24.1k. Going into December’s jobs report out Friday, futures traders were extremely confident that the fed funds rate would be left unchanged … Continued
With sell-side optimism around 2026 earnings at a record high, major US equity indices are not too far away from their respective record highs. At the same time, after seven up months in succession, potentially bearish monthly candles have appeared … Continued
In a seasonally favorable period, US equity indices are rallying but with hesitancy, with small-caps and tech struggling to build on most recent momentum. This can change if VIX breaches eight-year trendline support. As of the 16th this month, non-commercials, … Continued
S&P 500 buybacks hit a new high in the 12 months to September. Buybacks, along with earnings and margin debt, have been key pillars of support in this bull market. Failure to live up to expectations by even one variable … Continued
Margin debt rose to a fresh high last month and has a potential to keep rising in the next few months, but only if equity bulls manage to defend important support on the major indices in the imminent selloff. FINRA … Continued
Ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, the major equity indices last week all rallied toward their October highs, even as short-term indicators got further pushed into overbought territory. The meeting likely becomes a sell-the-news phenomenon. The Russell 2000 finished up … Continued
Equity bulls are hoping for a squeeze. With index-level short interest at/near record, longs, if successful, will be able to build on last week’s positive momentum. Seasonality is on their side, but it is equally possible this potential tailwind has … Continued
Stocks are on the backfoot, with bulls continuing to hang on to optimism for lower rates and bears beginning to benefit from extended multiples plus weakening technicals. Near-term, bulls are likely to benefit from last Friday’s intraday reversal, even as … Continued
Equity bulls and bears are locked in battle. Until a couple of weeks ago, bulls were in the driving seat. Bears have had some opening of late, with increasing odds of more success in days/weeks to come. The sell-side continues … Continued