As talk around inflation has gone up several notches, the 10-year treasury yield sits on triple support. A breach has room to squeeze TLT shorts. Inflation is front and center. It is perky. As recently as February this year, core … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 15, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 34.3k, down 139.1k. Last week’s FOMC meeting pulled a surprise on markets. Members brought forward their projections for interest rate hikes into 2023, with … Continued
Amidst continuation of aggressive accumulation of assets by the Federal Reserve and a trial balloon last week by Philadelphia Fed president of eventual tapering, large- and small-caps are going their separate ways – the former liking soft economic data and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 25, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 104.4k, up 72.7k. In the week to Wednesday, Federal Reserve assets declined $19.3 billion week-over-week to $7.9 trillion but the prior week’s $7.92 trillion … Continued
Job openings – both non-farm and NFIB – are at new highs. But this optimism is not getting translated into other aspects, such as capex plans. Last Friday’s jobs report was a huge letdown. Versus expectations of a million new … Continued
The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting later today. Rates on the short end of the yield curve are behaving but the long end is perking up. This is taking place at a time when foreigners are aggressively selling treasury notes … Continued
Fed chair made it clear last week that things have not deteriorated enough for them to act. In this atmosphere, the 10-year rate can head toward two percent. Equities, in all probability, will not like that, even though they are … Continued
Last March, the Fed essentially urged investors to take on risk and go up the risk curve. They have obliged. Leverage is high in the system. This works as long as the prevailing upward momentum is in place. When a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 103.4k, up 23.9k. The 10-year treasury yield had a mini breakout this week at 1.2 percent. This was preceded by a breakout six weeks … Continued
The 10-year continues to perk up, eyeing 1.4 percent. The strength is seen even though the Fed continues to aggressively buy these securities, although foreigners have been cutting exposure. In a leveraged economy, higher rates will translate to higher interest … Continued