The U.S. sovereign bond market has hit the headlines a lot these days. Rates have rallied big since September 2017 lows, but from suppressed levels, and are at crucial stage technically. At least near term, fundamentals do not allow for … Continued
Having stopped responding to improving U.S. fundamentals, the US dollar index currently sits at a confluence of technical support. The U.S. economy in recent quarters has put up strong numbers. Real GDP in 4Q17 grew at a seasonally adjusted annual … Continued
Ten-year Treasury yields rallied last week to right underneath the top end of a three-decade-old channel. A breakout has to wait for now. The 13-basis-point jump last week was big, and probably took many by surprise. At one point, yields … Continued
The options market continues to reflect elevated optimism. In nine of the last 12 sessions, the CBOE equity put-to-call ratio registered readings in the 0.50s. The other three were in the low 0.60s. In fact, major U.S. stock indices yesterday … Continued
Of late, U.S. economic data have been coming in better than expected. Is this getting translated into better corporate sales and earnings? The Citi Economic Surprise Index has shot up from -80 in the middle of the year to 56. … Continued
The Nasdaq 100 index does not act well. Is it purely rotation or a reflection on the economy or on the 1Q17 earnings season that begins next week? After rallying for seven consecutive months, the index lost 2.5 percent in … Continued
Chart 1 shows decent relationship between year-over-year change in the S&P 500 large cap index and the ISM manufacturing index. U.S. manufacturing activity has picked up – from 49.4 last August to 57.5 in February. The 8.3-point six-month jump is … Continued
Markets are under the influence of the Fed’s rate hike talk – or a lack of it – a little too much … to such an extent that it can potentially backfire someday. Last Thursday, we learned that the ISM … Continued
Arguably, if U.S. stocks followed crude oil or economic data, they probably would be a lot lower. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies peaked at $29.60 in 3Q14, and have been decelerating since. With 474 companies having reported 4Q15 (as … Continued