Small-Business Optimism Near Record Highs, Several Sub-Indexes Diverge

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Small-business optimism continues to remain near all-time highs, although several sub-indexes are diverging, including profit trend, which the Russell 2000 closely tracks. The NFIB optimism index rose 1.4 points month-over-month in July to 104.7.  This was the 32nd consecutive month … Continued

Amid Divergences, QQQ Bulls Last Week Defend 11-Month Support, But Denied At S/T Resistance

There is no shortage of divergences – be it in macro or other assets, including equities.  Major equity indices peaked early this month but put foot down early last week.  Medium term, building on it further can prove difficult.  Overbought … Continued

After 9 Weeks Of Rally, Signs Of Fatigue Last Week On Russell 2000/IWM

US stocks are on fire.  The Russell 2000/IWM was essentially unchanged last week, with the index down 0.03 percent and the ETF up 0.06 percent.  This followed nine weeks of persistent rally, during which they jumped 34 percent.  Conditions are … Continued

Bears Had Excellent Opportunity, But Latest Bull-Bear Tug Of War Likely Going Bulls’ Way

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

US equity bears had an excellent opportunity to push prices lower.  Indices did come under pressure.  But it looks like once again bulls managed to put their foot down on time. The S&P 500 large cap index made a new … Continued

Both Hard And Soft Data Not Pointing Toward Capex Resurgence Post-Tax Cuts

posted in: Uncategorized | 0

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 – signed into law on December 22 last year – allows U.S. companies to repatriate the cash they have socked away overseas by paying 15.5 percent, rather than the previous 35 percent.  … Continued

What If?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Is the U.S. economy strong, weak or just about right?  Better yet, is it getting stronger, weaker or going sideways?  The truth is, pessimists and optimists both can selectively pick and choose to support their own bias. That said, data … Continued

Going By Small-Cap Action, Investors Subtly Leaning Toward Risk-Off

If small-caps are a gauge of investor mood for risk- on and-off, then they are subtly beginning to lean toward risk-off. Of the four major U.S. indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq composite, and the … Continued

Dismal U.S. Capex Scene Continues — Not Likely To Change Anytime Soon

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

U.S. corporate capital expenditures have been lackluster.  That is an understatement. As a percent of real GDP in 3Q15, non-residential fixed investment comprised 12.8 percent.  The post-Great Recession high of 12.9 percent was recorded in each of the three quarters … Continued