There probably is an air of excitement among U.S. housing bulls – particularly the technically oriented ones. Sales of both new and existing homes have broken out of recent ranges. In June, new homes rose 3.5 percent month-over-month to a … Continued
The Fed is in a tight spot. Yesterday, on the day it told us it continues to have a slight tightening bias it published capacity utilization and industrial production for May. Utilization dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month to 74.9 percent, a … Continued
A week ago last Friday, U.S. stocks opened lower reacting to less-than-expected rise in April’s non-farm payroll. As the session progressed, bids showed up, as traders began to price in lesser odds of a rate hike in June. Turns out … Continued
Today is jobs day. April numbers are due out later this morning. One of the metrics that economists keenly await is average hourly earnings for private-sector employees. The U.S. unemployment rate has dropped all the way to five percent – … Continued
Are we seeing a classic ‘stocks turn ahead of fundamentals’ phenomenon? U.S. equities in general bottomed on February 11th after a brutal sell-off in January. From late-December 2015 highs through the afore-mentioned low, the S&P 500 index dropped 13 percent … Continued
The Federal Reserve would like some inflation. In fact, every major central bank would. Or, for that matter, every debtor would – be it an individual, a corporation, or a sovereign nation. For debtors, a little inflation goes a long … Continued
One of the hallmarks of the current U.S. recovery has been a lack of wage gains. Corporations have become the price setters, and employees the price takers. It is not that U.S. corporates are not making money. Profits adjusted for … Continued
National Federation of Independent Business members’ comp plans jumped three points in November to 20, matching the November 2006 high. The spike in the red line in Chart 1 is noteworthy. Historically, it has shown a tendency to lead average … Continued
Last week when October’s jobs report was published, there was one particular data point that really jumped out. The average hourly earnings of private-sector employees jumped 2.5 percent year-over-year, to $25.20 (Chart 1). This was the fastest rate employee earnings … Continued
The energizer bunny marches on. The U.S. consumer, that is. In the third quarter, the U.S. economy grew an annualized 1.5 percent. This was the first estimate, so it probably gets revised up or down by the time we have … Continued