The last time average hourly earnings of U.S. private-sector employees grew with a three handle was April 2009 … means in the current recovery wages are yet to print growth of three percent. December came close, with a year-over-year increase … Continued
There probably is an air of excitement among U.S. housing bulls – particularly the technically oriented ones. Sales of both new and existing homes have broken out of recent ranges. In June, new homes rose 3.5 percent month-over-month to a … Continued
The Fed is in a tight spot. Yesterday, on the day it told us it continues to have a slight tightening bias it published capacity utilization and industrial production for May. Utilization dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month to 74.9 percent, a … Continued
A week ago last Friday, U.S. stocks opened lower reacting to less-than-expected rise in April’s non-farm payroll. As the session progressed, bids showed up, as traders began to price in lesser odds of a rate hike in June. Turns out … Continued
Today is jobs day. April numbers are due out later this morning. One of the metrics that economists keenly await is average hourly earnings for private-sector employees. The U.S. unemployment rate has dropped all the way to five percent – … Continued
Are we seeing a classic ‘stocks turn ahead of fundamentals’ phenomenon? U.S. equities in general bottomed on February 11th after a brutal sell-off in January. From late-December 2015 highs through the afore-mentioned low, the S&P 500 index dropped 13 percent … Continued
The Federal Reserve would like some inflation. In fact, every major central bank would. Or, for that matter, every debtor would – be it an individual, a corporation, or a sovereign nation. For debtors, a little inflation goes a long … Continued
One of the hallmarks of the current U.S. recovery has been a lack of wage gains. Corporations have become the price setters, and employees the price takers. It is not that U.S. corporates are not making money. Profits adjusted for … Continued
National Federation of Independent Business members’ comp plans jumped three points in November to 20, matching the November 2006 high. The spike in the red line in Chart 1 is noteworthy. Historically, it has shown a tendency to lead average … Continued
Last week when October’s jobs report was published, there was one particular data point that really jumped out. The average hourly earnings of private-sector employees jumped 2.5 percent year-over-year, to $25.20 (Chart 1). This was the fastest rate employee earnings … Continued