Volatility bulls failed last week to hang on to Monday’s spike, even as non-commercials are actively reducing net shorts in VIX futures. This is taking place at a time when large-cap indices are trading just above the 200-day, and small-caps … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 10, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 534.9k, down 119.6k. In the 12 months to January, headline and core CPI rose 2.4 percent and 2.5 percent respectively; headline and core PCE … Continued
The major US equity indices have either lost important support or close to doing so. Both large- and small-caps seem to be eyeing the 200-day. Small-cap bulls were unwilling last Friday to pounce on February’s dismal jobs report, rather sold … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 3, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 654.5k, down 119.5k. February pulled a surprise, as the economy unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs, even as January and December were revised lower by a … Continued
Nasdaq shorts, with record short interest, are positioning themselves for a breakdown in the index, or the highly concentrated Nasdaq 100. Breakdown in tech is sure to adversely impact the S&P 500, the other large cap index. Last week, the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Feb 24, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 774k, down 103.8k. ISM manufacturing activity in January entered expansion territory for the first time in 11 months. The job market could be stronger, … Continued
Margin debt hit a new high in January, up $150 billion over four months. Large-cap indices, however, have gone sideways since late October; this is also the case with small caps, but only since early January. Margin debt set a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Feb 17, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 877.9k, up 64.8k. On Friday, the day the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s blanket tariffs in a 6-3 vote, the 10-year treasury … Continued
Equity traders have adopted a defensive posture since early November, even as large-cap equity indices went on to post newer highs. The likes of the S&P 500 are now catching up to it. The ratio of XLY (SPDR Consumer Discretionary … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Feb 10, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 813k, up 83.6k. Minutes of the January 27-28 FOMC meeting will be out Wednesday. The fed funds rate was left unchanged at that meeting … Continued