CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 832.7k, up 27.7k. Amidst signs that the 10-year treasury yield is ready for a reflex rally, non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures went … Continued

Bond Shorts Betting On Higher Yields Probably Right Tactically But Not Strategically

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Something is afoot in the bond land – in how bond shorts are viewing things. They have used the sharp decline in the 10-year T-yield post-December 13th FOMC meeting to aggressively go short these notes, betting on higher rates. They … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 26, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 805k, up 117.4k. Non-commercials are not pulling back. Far from it! Their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures went up another 17.1 … Continued

Rates Sharply Higher Even As Consumer Credit Is At Record High And Sentiment Remains Suppressed

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

Consumer credit is at a record high, including auto loans. Already stretched, consumers are now having to deal with higher rates. Evidently, consumer sentiment remains suppressed. This has the potential to seriously impact retail sales next year – negatively, of … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 19, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 687.6k, up 130.6k. In the last week of 2022, non-commercials were net short 344,209 contracts in 10-year note futures. This week, they held 687,572 … Continued

Small-Caps Rallied Big On Fed Pivot; Now, 3 FOMC Members Are Warning Markets Not To Get Carried Away With Rate-Cut Hopes Next Year

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Small-caps rallied huge last week in reaction to the so-called Fed pivot. That said, no sooner did Powell deliver that message last Wednesday, leading to futures traders now demanding six cuts next year, than three different FOMC members came out … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 12, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 556.9k, down 79.5k. By making a sharp dovish turn, the Federal Reserve has let loose animal spirits in risk-on assets. This week’s FOMC meeting … Continued

Doves Fly, Bulls Run, Animal Spirits On Loose

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Equities | 0

Even though Chair Powell said it is far too early to declare victory, he and his team did exactly that yesterday when they caught markets by surprise by making a hard dovish turn. The dot plot now expects up to … Continued