With massive gains post-April lows, the major US equity indices are showing signs of fatigue. This is taking place a couple of weeks before the upcoming FOMC meeting in which markets have locked in a 25-basis-point cut in the fed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 26, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 883.8k, down 61.7k. Unlike his first four-year term, President Donald Trump’s preoccupation with the Federal Reserve has gone up meaningfully during his second term. … Continued
After multiple attempts, the Russell 2000 has finally pushed through 2300 – on rate-cut hopes. This sentiment is also evident in the recent rise in small-business optimism, although it is not yet translated into increased job openings. Uncertainty remains – … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 19, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 945.5k, up 3.3k. Chair Jerome Powell used Friday’s Jackson Hole speech to suggest a rate cut is coming in the next meeting, which is … Continued
Markets have amped up rate-cut expectations for both this year and next, with some even ludicrously calling for a 50-basis-point reduction in next month’s FOMC meeting. Inflation has trended higher the last four-five months. This makes it difficult for the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 12, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 942.2k, down 17.6k. Minutes for the July 29-30 FOMC meeting are due next Wednesday. Despite repeated demands for lower short rates by President Donald … Continued
The stark difference between large- and small-cap performance remains a thorn in the side of the bull market. This is also corroborated in the June-quarter earnings numbers thus far. In the meantime, as tech-led large-caps snapped back sharply last week, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 5, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 959.8k, up 63.2k. Non-commercials aggressively added to their net shorts in 10-year note futures, raising their holdings by seven percent to 959,834 contracts – … Continued
Overbought equities took it on the chin last week, with the S&P 500 producing a bearish candle on the weekly. But before the bears could hang their hat on this, the ratio of VIX to VXV may not fully cooperate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 29, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 896.6k, up 147.1k. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman did something that has not happened since 1993. They dissented in this week’s FOMC meeting. … Continued