The major equity indices sit just below their all-time highs, and you would not know this by looking at the deeply suppressed consumer sentiment. Concurrently, leading into the start of 2Q earnings, the daily Bollinger bands have tightened on these … Continued
Low savings rate, falling deposits and levered-up consumers could be a precursor to a pullback in spending. Later this morning, May’s personal income/spending data will be published. This series also contains the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index measuring inflation. … Continued
The US is a credit-reliant economy. Many Americans tap credit cards to even cover essential living expenses. In June, revolving credit shot up 11.2 percent year-over-year to $1.26 trillion – barely under May’s record high. Interest rates on credit cards, … Continued
Within a year, US interest rates have gone up a lot, with the fed funds rate having risen from zero-bound to north of 4.5 percent currently. In the futures market, traders expect the benchmark rates to peak between 550 basis … Continued
Small-caps are lagging. With a large domestic exposure, these companies offer a reliable way to take a pulse of the economy. Rates have gone up a lot and will rise even more. A recession is imminent next year. Large-caps’ recent … Continued