Kudos to equity bulls for having cashed in on last Tuesday’s CPI report, which was just a tad better than expected. With three up weeks in a row, the S&P 500 – as overbought as it is on the daily … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 14, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 661.8k, up 57.3k. After six months of uninterrupted rally, the 10-year treasury yield is on pace to a down month. So far this month, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 31, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 627.7k, up 64.3k. The 10-year treasury yield has peaked. For three consecutive sessions last month, it tried to unsuccessfully take out five percent, with … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 19, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 702.3k, down 42k. The 10-year treasury yield this week made what could turn out to be an important breakout. Or could it? Last October, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 1, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 645.2k, up 21.4k. No sooner did the 10-year treasury yield break out of 4.09 percent, which resisted rally attempts in February and early July, … Continued
VIX flashed a spike reversal last week. If history repeats itself, this probably means downward pressure on volatility, and higher stock prices. This is near term. Medium- to long-term, it will take time to heal the technical damage inflicted this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 25, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 264.7k, down 6.8k. Jerome Powell, Fed chairman, has a task at hand – to bring inflation, the likes of which has not been seen … Continued
The FOMC meets this week. Stocks are adjusting to an increasingly hawkish Fed, which is belatedly alarmed by the persistently rising inflation. At some point, the long end of the treasury yield curve is likely to cry uncle, putting earnings … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 18, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 271.4k, down 72.4k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the year’s first scheduled meeting, and seven more remain after this. Members will … Continued