Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 27, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 726.2k, up 70.5k. As expected, the fed funds rate was left unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting at a range of 350 basis points … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 20, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 655.6k, down 214.9k. The FOMC meets next week. In the futures market, under five percent of traders are currently pricing in a 25-basis-point cut, … Continued
Amidst households’ equity allocation at a fresh record and continued support from margin debt, large-cap indices are giving out signs of fatigue, while small-caps are quick off the blocks in 2026. Margin debt and the S&P 500 tend to have … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 13, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 870.5k, down 45k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year note futures by 4.9 percent this week, but they maintain a heavy bearish exposure. Yields … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 6, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 915.6k, down 24.1k. Going into December’s jobs report out Friday, futures traders were extremely confident that the fed funds rate would be left unchanged … Continued
With sell-side optimism around 2026 earnings at a record high, major US equity indices are not too far away from their respective record highs. At the same time, after seven up months in succession, potentially bearish monthly candles have appeared … Continued
S&P 500 buybacks hit a new high in the 12 months to September. Buybacks, along with earnings and margin debt, have been key pillars of support in this bull market. Failure to live up to expectations by even one variable … Continued
Margin debt rose to a fresh high last month and has a potential to keep rising in the next few months, but only if equity bulls manage to defend important support on the major indices in the imminent selloff. FINRA … Continued
Ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, the major equity indices last week all rallied toward their October highs, even as short-term indicators got further pushed into overbought territory. The meeting likely becomes a sell-the-news phenomenon. The Russell 2000 finished up … Continued
Equity bulls are hoping for a squeeze. With index-level short interest at/near record, longs, if successful, will be able to build on last week’s positive momentum. Seasonality is on their side, but it is equally possible this potential tailwind has … Continued