Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 26, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 732k, up 29.7k. The 10-year treasury yield continued higher, up 14 basis points from last week to 4.57 percent. On Thuresday, rates rose as … Continued
The sell-side just bumped up estimates for S&P 600 operating earnings for both this year and next. The Russell 2000 does not give a hoot. Small-caps act weak – much weaker than large-caps. If they are sending the right signal, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 19, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 702.3k, down 42k. The 10-year treasury yield this week made what could turn out to be an important breakout. Or could it? Last October, … Continued
This week’s dot plot indicated one more hike is possible this year. Equity bulls did not want to hear this. In the futures market, a wide gap remains between what fed funds traders see things and what the Fed tells … Continued
Near-term, equity bulls may just have wasted an opportunity to put their foot down. Mid- to long-term, both margin debt and share buybacks are no longer a potent tailwind as they once were. FINRA margin debt dropped 2.9 percent month-over-month … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 12, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 744.3k, down 47.2k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the sixth scheduled meeting this year, and two more remain – one each in … Continued
US households have built up massive equity in their homes, but homeowners are not rushing to tap into equity. Rising rates are probably to blame. The situation is unlikely to get better in quarters to come, as the Fed keeps … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 5, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 791.5k, down 14k. Non-commercials reduced their massive holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures, but nothing major. At 791,535 contracts, positions remain within … Continued
The 10-year yield retreated last month from a potentially crucial spot. The supply-demand dynamics are in favor of bond bears, but this is also a well-known fact, hence may already be in the price. They at the same time are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 29, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 805.6k, up 110.7k. Non-commercials aggressively added to net shorts in 10-year note futures. This week’s count of 805,553 contracts is merely 5.6 percent from … Continued