For Rate-Hike Clues, Focusing On Jobs Trend, Not Just Monthly Numbers

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Today is jobs day.  At 8:30 later this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the report card for September.  A monthly ritual that markets more often than not await with abated breath.  Particularly so this time around as the … Continued

Markets Doing Fed’s Work — Real Interest Rates Are Tighter

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Market participants have no clue how to read Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.  The latter failed to settle the debate as to whether or not the Federal Reserve will move in September.  Treasury bonds are acting as if the message was dovish … Continued

COT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 4, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell told CNBC on Wednesday that he has not made up his mind yet on whether interest rates should … Continued

Muddle-Along New Normal — CapX-Revival Hopes Keep Getting Dashed

posted in: Economy | 0

Last week when the advance report on U.S. durable goods for June was published, new orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – used as proxy for business capital expenditures – were $68.4 billion, and May was reported as $67.8 billion.  … Continued

EEM Looks Ripe For Buy-Write

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

After a three-month 17-percent drop, EEM, the iShares Emerging Markets ETF, looks ripe for an options trade. On May 22, 2013, Ben Bernanke, then-Fed chair, suggested that the Fed would begin tapering back nearly $70 billion in monthly purchases of … Continued

Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 30, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Non-commercials continue to reduce net shorts – currently lowest since September 23rd last year.  They have reduced net shorts by 98 percent in … Continued

Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 26, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If we just focus on what the consensus was expecting, U.S. economic data this week were split down the middle, with maybe a … Continued