Volatility bulls failed last week to hang on to Monday’s spike, even as non-commercials are actively reducing net shorts in VIX futures. This is taking place at a time when large-cap indices are trading just above the 200-day, and small-caps … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 10, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 534.9k, down 119.6k. In the 12 months to January, headline and core CPI rose 2.4 percent and 2.5 percent respectively; headline and core PCE … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 3, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 654.5k, down 119.5k. February pulled a surprise, as the economy unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs, even as January and December were revised lower by a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Feb 24, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 774k, down 103.8k. ISM manufacturing activity in January entered expansion territory for the first time in 11 months. The job market could be stronger, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Feb 17, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 877.9k, up 64.8k. On Friday, the day the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s blanket tariffs in a 6-3 vote, the 10-year treasury … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Feb 10, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 813k, up 83.6k. Minutes of the January 27-28 FOMC meeting will be out Wednesday. The fed funds rate was left unchanged at that meeting … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Feb 3, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 729.4k, up 3.3k. There is a lot of talk around the nominee to replace Chair Jerome Powell regarding the balance sheet of the Federal … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 27, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 726.2k, up 70.5k. As expected, the fed funds rate was left unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting at a range of 350 basis points … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 20, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 655.6k, down 214.9k. The FOMC meets next week. In the futures market, under five percent of traders are currently pricing in a 25-basis-point cut, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 13, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 870.5k, down 45k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year note futures by 4.9 percent this week, but they maintain a heavy bearish exposure. Yields … Continued