As the rally from the lows of October persists, there are fewer and fewer bears around. In the last several months, they have had several opportunities to gain the upper hand, but to no avail. Another opportunity is at hand. … Continued
In the latter part of last week, tech delivered, helping the major US equity indices rally big. Two issues could make or mar this week. The FOMC meets, and two more tech behemoths report earnings. The FOMC meets this week, … Continued
Yet again, equity bulls successfully denied bears of an opportunity to build on incipient downside momentum. Action in the last two weeks had given the latter some opening, but the door was slammed shut after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. It increasingly … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 603.5k, down 109.7k. Fed funds futures traders are sticking with their outlook for three 25-basis-point cuts this year, with the first cut taking place … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 713.3k, up 47.7k. Once again, markets are demanding more versus what the Federal Reserve is willing to give. Going into this week, fed funds … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 665.6k, down 63.5k. January’s PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index came out Thursday. Ahead of the report, futures traders were pricing in three 25-basis-point … Continued
Economic data for the most part continue to come in stronger than expected. In the futures market, traders’ rate expectations are now down to three to four cuts this year, down from six to seven post-December ‘Fed pivot’ meeting. It … Continued
Something is afoot in the bond land – in how bond shorts are viewing things. They have used the sharp decline in the 10-year T-yield post-December 13th FOMC meeting to aggressively go short these notes, betting on higher rates. They … Continued
The Russell 2000 had a phenomenal Friday as rate-cut expectations were brought forward to March. Futures traders now expect five cuts next year – unlikely unless the US economy craters, in which case small-caps will take the brunt of the … Continued
October’s CPI report showed continued disinflation since peaking last year at four-decade highs. Concurrently, Walmart, which commands a wide consumer reach with nearly $600 billion in annual sales, rather ominously commented that the company was more cautious than it was … Continued