Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 27, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 726.2k, up 70.5k. As expected, the fed funds rate was left unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting at a range of 350 basis points … Continued
Four of the Magnificent 7 report this week and carry potential to sway large-cap indices that are weighted by market cap. It is also possible these results will hurt or help small-caps in a roundabout way. The December-quarter earnings season … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 20, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 655.6k, down 214.9k. The FOMC meets next week. In the futures market, under five percent of traders are currently pricing in a 25-basis-point cut, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 13, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 870.5k, down 45k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year note futures by 4.9 percent this week, but they maintain a heavy bearish exposure. Yields … Continued
Breakouts galore – some potentially significant, some feeble. But it is too soon to lend significant weight to last week’s action given potentially bearish candles of November and December. The Russell 2000 cleanly broke out of 2540s last week. After … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Jan 6, 2026. 10-year note: Currently net short 915.6k, down 24.1k. Going into December’s jobs report out Friday, futures traders were extremely confident that the fed funds rate would be left unchanged … Continued
With sell-side optimism around 2026 earnings at a record high, major US equity indices are not too far away from their respective record highs. At the same time, after seven up months in succession, potentially bearish monthly candles have appeared … Continued
S&P 500 buybacks hit a new high in the 12 months to September. Buybacks, along with earnings and margin debt, have been key pillars of support in this bull market. Failure to live up to expectations by even one variable … Continued
Stocks are on the backfoot, with bulls continuing to hang on to optimism for lower rates and bears beginning to benefit from extended multiples plus weakening technicals. Near-term, bulls are likely to benefit from last Friday’s intraday reversal, even as … Continued
The major US equity indices came under decent pressure last week, although bids showed up Friday near the 50-day moving average. Buyers otherwise were missing in action overlooking the much-better-than-expected 3Q25 earnings season. Between the October 29th all-time high of … Continued