Going By Small-Cap Action, Investors Subtly Leaning Toward Risk-Off

If small-caps are a gauge of investor mood for risk- on and-off, then they are subtly beginning to lean toward risk-off. Of the four major U.S. indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq composite, and the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 24, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 153.6k, up 47.3k. FOMC meets next week.  The October 31-November 1 meeting is the seventh this year, with the eighth, and final, scheduled for … Continued

Ten-Year T-Yields Back Up, But Still Under Crucial 2.62%

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

U.S. Treasury yields have come under upward pressure for nearly a month and a half, although the increase has not been uniform across the curve. The yield curve (spread between the two- and 10-year) last Friday was only 79 basis … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 17, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 106.3k, down 86.3k. If Politico is to be believed, President Trump is leaning toward Jerome Powell, Fed governor, for the next Federal Reserve chair.  … Continued

Tax-Cut Hopes Propelling Small-Caps — To Face Reality Test Ahead

Post-presidential election last November, U.S. small-caps sprung to life, going nearly parabolic in two separate spurts.  President Trump’s promises to cut taxes, prune regulations and increase infrastructure spending helped improve investor sentiment.  Small-caps inherently are domestically focused. The first rally … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 10, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 192.6k, down 39.6k. Market participants constantly rerate expectations.  They have to.  The related variables are dynamic and constantly changing themselves. The nimble ones are … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 3, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 232.2k, down 24.5k. December looks like a lock.  The odds in the futures market of a 25-basis-point hike in the 12-13th meeting that month … Continued

Proposed Tax Cuts Passing Congress Hardly A Given

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

On September 27, the White House unveiled its proposal for changes to the tax code, which would drop the corporate rate from 35 percent to 20 percent.  For individuals, the top tax bracket drops from nearly 40 percent to 35 … Continued

R2K Breaks Out – Breakout Retest Matter Of Time, And Will Test Rally’s Sustainability

There is a new-found spring in U.S. small-caps’ step.  What changed all of a sudden?  More importantly, are there ingredients in place for the rally to sustain itself? The Russell 2000 small cap index just broke out.  It has been … Continued

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