JOLTS data came out this AM, and continues to point toward a healthy job market. This data series only goes back to 2004, but as the chart below shows, it correlates well with U.S. non-farm payroll. Both leading up to the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery, job openings led. This morning, the BLS reported JOLTS for October, and we already have non-payroll for November. The only thing to watch for going forward is that for the past three months job openings have gone sideways — 4.9mn in August, 4.7mn in September and 4.8mn in October.
The chart below tries to gauge conviction among employees to quit. Once again, it is an improving picture. Now we are well aware that the current recovery falls well short of past recoveries in the number of jobs created, their quality, etc. But within that, JOLTS does point to stability. That can always change — and will. But so far, so good.
