The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey of economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector is one of the reliable indicators economists/market participants focus on. As with any other data point, it tends to correlate with other data points. The … Continued
Debt can be both a boon and a bane. Used properly, it can be a very useful tool – be it to an individual, a business, or a government. Too much of it at the same time can unleash destructive … Continued
The title of the accompanying chart says it all. Despite all the talk behind the ongoing de-leveraging, facts point us to a different reality. Compared to 2007, the outstanding U.S. bond market debt is higher, not lower – $40.4tn in … Continued
Sales of new homes are struggling to maintain their earlier momentum. The three-month moving average flat-lined for nearly a year before peaking at 448k (SAAR) in January this year. Those for sale (supply) has been gradually inching up as well … Continued
In discussing the dynamics behind the U.S. bond market early this week, an important variable got left out. The chart below plots the budget situation of the U.S. government against issuance by the Treasury of notes and bonds. This gives … Continued
As 2014 began, growth expectations were very high for the U.S. economy. In fact, every year since the recession ended mid-2009, economists’ GDP forecasts have been on the optimistic side, only to be progressively cut back as the year progresses. … Continued
The phrase quantitative easing elicits diverse reaction. For some, QE was what saved the U.S. economy post 2007/2008 crisis and boosted both housing and stocks. For others, all it did was create this huge asset inflation, and further widen the … Continued
The 1Q14 GDP print was a shocker, to say the least! Real GDP inched up a mere 0.1 percent SAAR, versus consensus expectations of 1.2-percent expansion. Sure, it is the advance estimate, with two more still to come. Sure it … Continued
Are we there yet? Have we yet reached the escape velocity? You know the 6.96 miles-per-second speed needed to break free from the gravitational pull of the earth. I am of course figuratively referring to the prevalent expectations that the … Continued