Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 637.5k, up 219.6k. Non-commercials showed aggression in raising net shorts in 10-year-note futures to a 19-week high. In the week to January 16th, they … Continued
Small-caps have awoken from their slumber. The Russell 2000 is up 6.6 percent in the last three sessions, with a breakout at 2100. Long a laggard versus large-caps, particularly tech, small-caps’ latest outperformance is raising questions as to if this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 417.9k, up 72.5k. Futures traders this week jacked up their rate-cutting bets for this year. They now expect, with 90 percent probability, the first … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 319.8k, down 47.8k. FOMC minutes for the June 11-12 meeting will be out next Wednesday. It is pretty much a given nothing earth-shattering will … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 307.7k, down 147.1k. The 10-year treasury yield peaked last October at five percent (4.997 percent, to be precise), subsequently bottoming at 3.79 percent in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 4, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 454.8k, up 66.6k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the fourth meeting this year, and four more remain. The fed funds has … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 388.2k, down 12.8k. The trendline resistance proved too much for bond bears (on price) to overcome. On Wednesday, the 10-year treasury yield touched 4.64 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 401k, up 53.2k. FOMC minutes for the April 30-May 1 meeting out Wednesday showed members were worried over slow progress on inflation. For the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 347.8k, down 133.8k. The 10-year had an important test this week. Thursday’s intraday low of 4.32 percent was a successful test of horizontal support … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 481.6k, up 48.7k. Non-commercials continued to add to net shorts in 10-year note futures. As of Tuesday, holdings closed at 481,620 contracts, up from … Continued