The 2Q earnings season begins next week in earnest. The bar is low. Ahead of this, large-caps are leading but economically-sensitive small-caps are lagging. The latter likely is eyeing the 500-basis-point rise in the fed funds rate since March last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 27, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 801k, up 51k. FOMC minutes for the June 13-14 meeting are due out Wednesday. In that meeting, after raising the fed funds rate uninterrupted … Continued
Both large- and small-caps failed at crucial resistance last week. Investor focus shifted toward fundamentals that could wobble in the months and quarters ahead. The upward move in equities since last October’s low was a technical move, unwinding the oversold … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 20, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 750k, up 58.1k. The Bank of England’s unexpected 50-basis-point hike on Thursday to five percent highlights central bankers’ increasing frustration with inflation that is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 13, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 691.9k, down 61.8k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year note futures for the second week in a row. In the last couple of weeks, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 6, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 753.7k, down 96.7k. The FOMC begins a two-day meeting on Tuesday. After raising the fed funds rate by 500 basis points since March last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 30, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 850.4k, up 78.8k. Non-commercials are hanging on to a losing trade. The 10-year treasury yield retreated last October after touching 4.33 percent. Just a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 23, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 771.6k, up 79.2k. It took them a while, but futures traders have at long last stopped wasting money expecting an improbable outcome. Until last … Continued
The S&P 500 is up nearly 21 percent from last October’s low. Yet, US-based equity funds continue to bleed, and margin debt is lower from October through April. If equity bulls cannot mend the situation soon, non-commercials, with most net … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 16, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 692.4k, down 39.3k. FOMC minutes for the May 2-3 meeting are due out next Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 25 basis … Continued