Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 29, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 296.8k, down 24.5k. Markets and the Federal Reserve are talking past each other. Chair Jerome Powell’s Wednesday speech was interpreted as dovish – probably … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 321.3k, down 21.8k. Markets and FOMC hawks are on diverging paths. In the futures market, traders expect the fed funds rate to peak just … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 15, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 343k, up 60k. FOMC minutes for the November 1-2 meeting are due out next Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 75 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 8, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 283.1k, down 15.3k. FOMC hawks and doves are getting ready for a duel. Last Thursday, October’s CPI report showed headline and core consumer prices … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 1, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 298.3k, up 50.6k. It is beginning to look like FOMC members are no longer on the same page as they probably were until just … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 25, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 247.7k, down 65.7k. The FOMC meets this week. The November 1-2 meeting is the year’s seventh scheduled meeting. One more remains after this – … Continued
VIX acts like it wants to go lower for now. Concurrently, VIX:VXV is in overbought territory. And both the CBOE put-to-call ratio and the ISEE index point to growing investor pessimism. For the first time in four weeks, VIX went … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 18, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 313.4k, down 26.7k. Relentless is the word that comes to mind the way the 10-year treasury yield has rallied the last 12 weeks. On … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 11, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 340.2k, down 26.7k. September’s consumer price index, out Thursday, added to upward pressure on the interest-rate trajectory. Last month, headline and core CPI respectively … Continued
Last week, equity bulls owned the first two sessions, but only for bears to make a strong comeback as the week progressed, forming potentially bearish candles along the way. Right here and now, the bias is down. The two-day rally … Continued