Fed has openly discussed benefits of wealth effect; now adds another tool – talking down dollar Six years into recovery post-crisis, U.S. economy yet to witness escape velocity Dovish FOMC message fails to ignite sustained rally in US equities These … Continued
U.S. dollar suffered six-year downtrend before embarking on multi-year consolidation phase Recent pullback in the wake of parabolic move, amid grossly overbought technicals Too soon to say if breakout is reversal or continuation of prior trend If the US dollar … Continued
In 12 years ended September 2011, gold surged nearly eight times Momentum reversed and was never recouped even though QE3 was launched late ‘12 Sitting on crucial support; lot depends on if U.S. $ takes break from 12-wk, eight-percent-plus rally … Continued
Debtors prefer inflation; the more the better Fed, ECB and BoJ yearning for higher inflation, but latter is no-show Low inflation gives Fed more flexibility when to hike rates, which has investment implications There is no shortage of issues that … Continued
Expectations of higher US interest rates and stronger economy acting as tailwind behind resurgent $ Sentiment too bullish, reflected in non-commercials’ near-record net longs in US $ futures Safe bet probably is to wait to take the other side of … Continued
Another year, another record issuance! Probably. US corporate bond issuance is on course for another record year. August-to-date, as per the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, corporations have issued $939.2bn, of which investment-grade is $738.2bn and high-yield $201.1bn. In … Continued
Remember the August payroll report, which came in much weaker than the consensus was expecting? After six consecutive months of 200k-plus (April in fact was 300k-plus) jobs, August produced a mere 142k. Across the board, economists quickly brushed it off … Continued
The revised 2Q14 GDP numbers last week have rekindled hopes of a corporate capital spending revival in the U.S. It was the second estimate (preliminary), so there is one more revision to go. Nevertheless, several inputs related to corporate spending … Continued
At hedgopia, we try to be as objective as possible. Currently, this blogger is bearish insofar as U.S. equities and economy are concerned. Nevertheless, as someone famously said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What would you do, … Continued
What is going on in the jobs market the past several months is reviving hopes that better days are ahead. There is a lot we can point to in order to validate how anemic the recovery has been post-Great Recession. … Continued