Amidst relentless rally, excessively bullish dollar sentiment R between U.S. exports and dollar weak, but continual strength can hurt exports Previously, recession has tagged along with persistent drop in ‘share of U.S. exports in nominal GDP’ Since it bottomed early … Continued
James Bullard’s recent dovish comments fail to ignite interest in gold Possibility of triple-bottom reversal, but needs confirmation With recent thrust waning, near-term bias is down Since its peak in September 2011 at $1,924/ounce, gold has been trapped in a … Continued
In wake of early September breakout, U.S. dollar in limbo Too soon to say if breakout is reversal or continuation of prior downward trend Sentiment too bullish, reflected in large speculators’ futures position, raising odds of mean reversion The U.S. … Continued
Fed has openly discussed benefits of wealth effect; now adds another tool – talking down dollar Six years into recovery post-crisis, U.S. economy yet to witness escape velocity Dovish FOMC message fails to ignite sustained rally in US equities These … Continued
U.S. dollar suffered six-year downtrend before embarking on multi-year consolidation phase Recent pullback in the wake of parabolic move, amid grossly overbought technicals Too soon to say if breakout is reversal or continuation of prior trend If the US dollar … Continued
Gold, still near key technical level, generates some interest from longs Dollar has spent lots of energy last 12 weeks, looks tired Potential for reflex rally on GLD rises Phew! Sighs of relief expressed by gold bugs. The metal managed … Continued
In 12 years ended September 2011, gold surged nearly eight times Momentum reversed and was never recouped even though QE3 was launched late ‘12 Sitting on crucial support; lot depends on if U.S. $ takes break from 12-wk, eight-percent-plus rally … Continued
FXE breaks one more crucial technical support Large speculators’ euro net shorts at 26-mo high, but flattish in recent weeks Market reaction to Draghi’s asset-purchase plans will be a tell regarding euro’s near-term direction Still a wait-and-see on the euro … Continued
Debtors prefer inflation; the more the better Fed, ECB and BoJ yearning for higher inflation, but latter is no-show Low inflation gives Fed more flexibility when to hike rates, which has investment implications There is no shortage of issues that … Continued
Expectations of higher US interest rates and stronger economy acting as tailwind behind resurgent $ Sentiment too bullish, reflected in non-commercials’ near-record net longs in US $ futures Safe bet probably is to wait to take the other side of … Continued