Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 8, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 960.1k, down 183.8k. The 10-year treasury yield continued to rally – now up four weeks in a row, with the addition of nine more … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,143.9k, up 118.6k. Yet another record high in non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures! These traders are obviously positioned for higher rates, and … Continued
The S&P 500 is unable to decisively build on post-FOMC breakout. Amidst this, plenty of optimism is already built into options, and VIX acts like it wants higher prints. On the 19th, the day after the September 17-18 FOMC meeting, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 24, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,025.3k, down 68.7k. In August, headline and core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation metric, increased 2.24 percent and 2.68 percent, in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 17, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,094k, up 71.9k. The fed funds rate was cut by 50 basis points to a range of 475 basis points to 500 basis points. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,022.1k, up 19.3k. The FOMC begins a two-day meeting next Tuesday. This will be the sixth meeting this year, and two more remain – … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 3, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1,002.8k, up 88.4k. The economy produced a weaker-than-expected 142,000 non-farm jobs in August, even as the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent, as … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 914.4k, down 123.7k. Fed funds futures traders continue to raise rate-cutting bets. Until last week, they expected 100 basis points of cuts in the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 20, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 1.04mn, up 177.9k. “The time has come for policy to adjust.” The quote is from Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, in his keynote address … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 13, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 860.2k, up 84k. FOMC minutes for the July (30-31) meeting will come out Wednesday. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate steady at … Continued