After a roller-coaster ride since peaking late January, U.S. equity indices have once again approached potentially critical technical juncture. The S&P 500 large cap index peaked on January 26 at an intraday high of 2872.87, then dropping 11.8 percent intraday … Continued
It is a top. But is this the top? All of a sudden, it is not a crazy question to ask. The ferocity by which U.S. equities have dropped in recent sessions, one has to wonder if this marks a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 327.5k, up 111.9k. The bond market is worried. Yes, beginning last October the Fed has been curtailing its bloated $4.5-trillion balance sheet. Yes, foreigners’ … Continued
U.S. equity bulls stepped up near important support Tuesday. Those lows have now taken on significance. Should there be no violation, the path of least resistance is up – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. In the early months of 2016, stocks … Continued
Risk happens fast. All of a sudden, no one is buying the dip. Rather, the quest for protection has skyrocketed. In mere six sessions, VIX went from 11.08 to 38.80, closing Monday at 37.32. This was the highest since August … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 215.6k, up 97.7k. Last week, the futures-market odds of a 25-basis-point hike in the March (20-21) meeting in the fed funds rate stood at … Continued
Spot gold ($1,352.10/ounce) sits at a crucial technical juncture. A breakout would send a loud and clear message. Since bottoming at $1,045.40 in December 2015 through last week’s high of $1,365.40, gold quietly rallied nearly 31 percent. Stocks did better … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 23, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 117.9k, up 28.6k. Tuesday, a two-day FOMC meeting begins. This is the year’s first, and will be Janet Yellen’s, the outgoing chair, last. (The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 16, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 89.3k, down 107.6k. A Bloomberg article last week about China beginning to weigh slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasurys gave the bond market … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.9k, up 121k. Is this the big one? The big breakout in 10-year Treasury yields, that is? The 10-year has been trapped in a … Continued