Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 570k, down 8.4k. Minutes for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting are due out Wednesday. At this point, no one probably cares what the members … Continued
Although it rose 1.2 percent, the Nasdaq 100 essentially went sideways in March. This also offers tech bulls an opportunity to force another breakout. Catalysts are needed. There is, however, a month to go before the leading tech companies report … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 578.3k, up 4.3k. Well, looks like a battle of sorts is brewing within the FOMC. Recent commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has … Continued
The major US equity indices closed last week either right on or in slight breach of trendline support from last October’s low. Bulls’ mettle is being tested, even as investor sentiment remains too giddy. The Nasdaq 100 ended the week … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 603.5k, down 109.7k. Fed funds futures traders are sticking with their outlook for three 25-basis-point cuts this year, with the first cut taking place … Continued
Amidst ecstatic bullish sentiment, major US equity indices last week exhibited signs of exhaustion. Confirmation is needed, but equity bears may have an opening here – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Equity bulls are too bulled up. Chart 1 combines three … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 713.3k, up 47.7k. Once again, markets are demanding more versus what the Federal Reserve is willing to give. Going into this week, fed funds … Continued
Stocks have rallied huge since last October’s lows. Breadth, however, has been a problem. Large-caps are outperforming, and even here, just a handful are leading the way. Mid- and small-caps are lagging. Amidst this bifurcation, mid-caps have now rallied within … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 665.6k, down 63.5k. January’s PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index came out Thursday. Ahead of the report, futures traders were pricing in three 25-basis-point … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 20, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 729.1k, down 31.5k. In the futures market, fed funds traders have now reduced rates outlook to three 25-basis-point cuts this year. This is right … Continued