The rally since early-April lows has equity bulls aggressively expressing their sentiment in options, which, should the current trajectory persist, will have potentially reached a dangerous level soon. Optimism is in the air. Equity longs are expressing this in the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 1, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 863.3k, up 53.2k. FOMC minutes for the March 18-19 meeting will be out Wednesday. The fed funds rate was left steady at a range … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 18, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 881.4k, up 144.3k. As expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate steady at a range of 425 basis points to 450 basis points. … Continued
Equities have been under pressure the last several weeks. Investor sentiment has taken a beating. Amidst this came signs last Friday that a relief could be in the making. With the major equity indices under selling pressure for at least … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 11, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 737.1k, up 25k. In the futures market, traders are once again betting that there would be at least two 25-basis-point cuts in the fed … Continued
Volatility bulls had a great opportunity last week to score a major victory but came up short in the end. VIX had a decent week, but the inability to hang on to most of the gains resulted in a spike … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 732.9k, down 142.8k. In the 12 months to November, headline and core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased 2.44 percent and 2.82 percent respectively. These … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 728.5k, up 86.5k. July’s jobs report was weaker than expected, with a gain of 114,000 non-farm jobs and the unemployment rate jumping to 4.3 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 23, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 641.9k, up 4.4k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the fifth meeting this year, and three more remain. It is certain the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 637.5k, up 219.6k. Non-commercials showed aggression in raising net shorts in 10-year-note futures to a 19-week high. In the week to January 16th, they … Continued