A month ago, KBE, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF, looked on the verge of a breakout (more here). Here we are, one month later, the ETF has indeed broken out. It has the potential to be a major breakout, as … Continued
U.S. retail sales disappoint again – has not grown four out of last five months Not much correlation between gasoline price and personal consumption expenditures RTH, which had diverged from weakening retail sales, has been weakening past seven weeks U.S. … Continued
U.S. non-farm job openings fell 150k to 4.99 million in March, as per the JOLTS survey out this morning. This was the biggest month-over-month drop since last September, when openings shrank by 247k (Chart 1). This is one month’s data, … Continued
U.S. oil-and-extraction jobs continued to drip lower, down 7.1k from the October 2014 high of 201.5k (down 3.5 percent by April). The curve is much steeper in support jobs, having lost 21.1k jobs from the September 2014 peak of 337.6k … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 5, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: It was a weird week. That is an understatement. Up until Wednesday, 10-year yields were up 20 basis points. Treasurys on the long … Continued
U.S. wages stuck in mud, more so for supervised employees than for supervisory ECI for private sector has been trending higher since 1Q14; sustainable? Productivity crucial for employers’ ability to absorb wage hikes If there is one consistency in the … Continued
Turns out the March drop in energy job-cut announcements was not the beginning of a trend. After 20.2k and 16.3k cuts in January and February respectively, March dropped to a mere 1.3k, raising hopes that the worst was over. Job … Continued
U.S. homeownership continues to take it on the chin, with 1Q15 matching the 1Q93 low of 63.7 percent. A 22-year round-trip! The series goes back to 1Q65; the all-time low was set that year at 62.9, which is not that … Continued
A stronger U.S. dollar finally caused some disturbance with U.S. corporations, especially multinationals. While reporting March-quarter earnings, one after another singled out the dollar for causing top-line shortfall. From trough to peak between last May and March this year, the … Continued
The U.S. factory report out yesterday has ignited a ray of hope. Orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft (proxy for business capital expenditures) in particular were revised higher. March went from $68.19 billion to $68.71 billion, and February from $68.54 … Continued