TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund, declined 16 percent between the all-time intra-day high of 137.09 on January 30 and the low of 115.26 last Wednesday. It is as if the bond market globally has been awakened from … Continued
U.S. home builder sentiment in June jumps, to match post-bubble high of last September Recent spike in interest rates, if sticks, potentially shot across housing bow ITB acts tentative, but has not given up on crucial 26 support U.S. home … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 9, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, the IMF urged the Fed to delay a rate hike until 2016. This week, the World Bank said the same thing. … Continued
Retail sales up three months in a row, following three straight declines PCE, which includes services, probably better gauge of consumer behavior How consumer spending fares depends on consumers’ willingness to lever up Once every month, U.S. markets await with … Continued
From the mid-May high of $49.75 to the low this Monday of $47.46, XLP, the SPDR Consumer Staples ETF, quickly lost 4.6 percent. In three weeks! Monday produced a doji, right around its 200-day moving average. By that time, daily … Continued
There are some interesting dynamics taking place in the U.S. jobs market. The JOLTS report for April was released this morning. Turns out the March drop in non-farm job openings was an aberration. March openings were still down from 5.14 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 2, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Yields have decisively broken out of a five-month downtrend channel. The only question is what triggered this. To quote the Beige Book: “The … Continued
For U.S. corporations, there was a trio of bad news in yesterday’s revised productivity numbers for the first quarter, and this potentially has earnings repercussions. U.S. non-farm business output per hour year-over-year was revised lower from growth of 0.6 percent … Continued
U.S. consumer spending, accounting for >2/3rds of economy, key to growth Over last eight years, bank deposits have grown 80 percent But interest income suppressed due to ZIRP Do consumers always benefit from low interest rates? At first glance, that … Continued
U.S. personal incomes grow in April, but consumers stash away cash In recent months/quarters, inventories have been growing faster than orders ISM Manufacturing shows small improvement in order-inventory mismatch in May The importance of U.S. consumers cannot be stressed enough … Continued